As the high loonie keeps acting like a neutron bomb - quietly and relentlessly depleting Canada's manufacturing work force - the question for the shell-shocked companies - and their investors alike, is what's next? The string of bad news - particularly plant closures and layoffs, seems to be without an end in sight, especially for the former Big 3-dependent suppliers.
As the U.S. slows down, some are looking abroad for relief: Yet, for the most, China's, and most recently India's, booming markets are already too crowded for the famously risk-averse Canadian companies, sheltered for years by the low dollar and the easy access to the largest vehicle market in the world. The fast developing markets of Central and Eastern Europe are already dominated by the Europeans, while despite some recent progress, South America is still, for many, a big question mark - both as in its market volumes as well as political and/or economical stability.
A Russian perspective
This leads us to contemplate Russia, the largest country in the world - a rich and increasingly powerful force within the international economic arena. Aside from the burgeoning energy sector - oil, natural gas and mining, the automotive sector is seen as the next big thing, and the Russians have the numbers to prove it: The Russian market has been growing rapidly in the last few years surpassing the level of 2-million new vehicle sales in 2006, representing a 20% increase from 2005. That volume level propelled Russia to the position of the eighth largest market globally, and the consensus is that within two years it could equal Germany's volumes, which currently is Europe's largest national market.
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STRATEGIC/MACRO DAILY INFORMATION for Canadian automotive business
TJAAautoinfo FASTWEBLINK
Tuesday - Sept. 07, 2010
FOCUS: The rise and fall in China's auto production and sales growth since 2006: Shifting Gears - Caixin
FOCUS II: BMW Chief Plans ‘Big Push' to Fend Off Audi, Mercedes - BusinessWeek
FOCUS III: Gordon Murray and his T.25 city car - Telegraph
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: Four unexpected US economic bright spots - Fortune
ECONOMIC
FUNDAMENTALS II:
Unemployment in U.S. May Rise Toward 10% on ‘Feeble' Growth - Bloomberg
CANADA
Tough rate call ahead for Mark Carney - Reportonbusiness
Canada Firms Plan to Add Jobs in Fourth Quarter, Manpower Says - Bloomberg
Unions' Labour Day bogey: Government cuts - CBC
INTERNATIONAL
NADA not happy with proposed fuel economy letter grades - Autobloggreen
Analysts: US auto sales recovery under way, but may take longer - DetroitNews
GM Powertrain Hungary to double capacity - Reuters
Audi's $66,000 A7 to Challenge BMW, Daimler for Luxury Lead - Bloomberg
Fritz Henderson Makes The Weirdest Career Move Ever - 24/7WallSt.
MMC, Peugeot to make electric cars in Spain - Reuters
Long Weekend - Sept. 04, 2010
FOCUS: Taxpayers likely to face initial loss on GM IPO - Reuters
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: Japan Has More Than Just a Yen Crisis - BusinessWeek
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS II: U.S. Economy: Recession Concerns Ease on Private Jobs - Bloomberg
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS III: EU austerity policies risk civil war in Greece, warns top German economist Dr Sinn - Telegraph
CANADA
Kia Canada to recall 4,500 cars - TheStar
UBS lowers estimates for Canadian GDP growth - FinancialPost
Canada Credit: Yield Forecasts Fall as Carney Prepares Meeting - Bloomberg
INTERNATIONAL
Study: Modern li-ion batteries have little effect on life cycle impact of electric cars - Autobloggreen
Chrysler takes the wraps off of 2011 Dodge Durango - DetroitNews
Movie Star, Car Buff Tim Allen New Voice for Chevy - WardsAuto
Oil eases on growth concerns and weaker storm - Reuters
Ford Settles With Minor Leaguer's Family After Losing Verdict - Bloomberg
Friday - Sept. 03, 2010
FOCUS: Opel: The achilles heel in GM's IPO - Fortune/CNNMoney
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: White House: No second stimulus being considered - Reuters
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS II: China reserves 65% in dollars, 26% in euro - MarketWatch
CANADA
Canada's Dollar Drops as Risk ‘Orgy' Flags Before Jobs Report - Bloomberg
TSX on longest winning streak since February - FinancialPost
Canada's big five banks earn $4.8 billion in third quarter - TheStar
INTERNATIONAL
US Treasury mulls over foreign investors in GM IPO - Reuters
Toyota's US August Performance Worst in More Than Year - WardsAuto
US hybrid sales drop off for August; even Prius records a 37.5% decline - Autobloggreen
GM IPO tour timetable emerges - DetroitNews
Thursday - Sept. 02, 2010
FOCUS: Honda shares pass Toyota's on emerging market hope - Reuters
FOCUS II: How EPA's new fuel economy label would grade current cars - Autobloggreen
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: U.S. Avoids Recession as Data Can't Get Much Worse - Bloomberg
CANADA
Auto sales slow to a crawl - TheStar
Auto sales surge in Canada, slump in U.S. - Reportonbusiness
Electric car upswing would crash grid: Toronto Hydro chief - TheStar
INTERNATIONAL
German Aug. new-car registrations down 27% on year - MarketWatch
Continental picks banks for high-yield bond - Reuters
Toyota Leads U.S. Sales Drop on ‘Clunkers' Comparison - Bloomberg
Chevy's New Cruze Needs a Hard Sell - BusinessWeek
Ferrari 458 fires prompt global recall - Just-Auto
US Auto sales: Worst August since 1983 - CNNMoney
GM China Growth Slowest in 17 Months; Ford Sales Gain - Bloomberg
Wednesday - Sept. 01, 2010
FOCUS: Dan Akerson's first day at the top of GM - Fortune
FOCUS II: China's August Car Sales Increase 59%, Center Says - Bloomberg
FOCUS III: Feds investigate '11 Hyundai Sonata for steering issues - DetroitNews
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: The Knightian dog ate my recovery - Reuters
CANADA
Court clears Magna's $1B Stronach payout - FinancialPost
Auto Parts: Onex, CPPIB to delist Tomkins in London - Reportonbusiness
Ontario auto insurance reforms take effect Wednesday - TheStar
Canada's economic growth slows in Q2 - CBC
Canada's Dollar Falls to Eight-Week Low as Economic Pace Slows - Bloomberg
INTERNATIONAL
Visteon cleared to exit bankruptcy -DetroitNews
Tesla Roadster qualifies for Japan EV rebates - Reuters
Old GM, Motors Liquidation, files plan to revamp - MarketWatch
Japan Vehicle Sales Rise Most Since 1972 on Subsidy - Bloomberg
Hyundai Motor August sales dip due to holidays - Reuters
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