COVER STORY - 2008 CIAS Perspectives


According to the established definition, ‘pundit' is a Hindi word used to describe the ‘native surveyors who explored regions to the north of India for the British Empire.' However, an earlier version of pundit was in part used to describe sage interpreters of the signs of the future.

Later, the word migrated into the world's technical lexicon and a century and a half later, although its meaning still retains some of the original flavors, pundit has evolved into being a more complex term, generally describing a person capable of both - ‘surveying' his/her area of expertise combined with the ability to ‘see' the future, and most importantly, having the ability to explain it all in an easy, lay language.

Tough act, needless to say, especially if one has to advise on the complex future of Canada's automotive sector.

During the Canadian International Auto Show, we had the chance to talk to two of the most respected Canadian auto analysts - Mr. Dennis DesRosiers of Richmond Hill-based DesRosiers Automotive Consultants and Mr. Richard Cooper, Executive Director - J.D. Power Canada.

Here is a brief of our discussions, regarding the immediate future of Canada's automotive sector:

Last week, GM posted an impressive loss - US $38.7 billion and although it was largely due to a third-quarter charge related to tax credits, is still an impressive number. What are the repercussions for GM's operations?

Dennis DesRosiers:
GM has been going through a variety of phases to become the new GM. It looks like right now they're at the final end of their restructuring stage - and this is where all the negatives are happening. They still need to go through their economics - like getting the wages down, but now they're emerging out of the ‘bad news story' phase, and we'll see as this year progresses into next, they'll be morphing into the next - the ‘better news story' phase. We're already starting to see snippets of it, such as specific products that they're introducing, plants that are going to be kept open, and of course, the reinvestments. They're exiting the first two phases - which are the relatively negative ones and entering the third - a much more positive one.
I'm not concerned about the GM announcements - they're expected, its part of the game. The issue is that we spin things so much in this industry that sometimes we get carried away and we start believing in the spin itself...


Richard Cooper:
I don't' think that GM's final result was a total surprise given the Q4 results - they've been working on cutting their costs and regaining market share and producing new, good products - like the new Malibu or the Buick Enclave and other products. We believe that the future looks strong for GM -especially as they now have a strong management in place. The main issue is that the industry doesn't stay the same and even as they're going through this entire process of restructuring, the industry keeps moving ahead and it gets more and more competitive ... Our outlook for GM is positive - we don't think that the recent announcement is major issue for GM in the longer term, and certainly when we're looking at GM on a global basis, it's a very strong company.

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STRATEGIC/MACRO DAILY INFORMATION for Canadian automotive business

TJAAautoinfo FASTWEBLINK

Tuesday - Sept. 07, 2010

FOCUS: The rise and fall in China's auto production and sales growth since 2006: Shifting Gears - Caixin

FOCUS II: BMW Chief Plans ‘Big Push' to Fend Off Audi, Mercedes - BusinessWeek

FOCUS III: Gordon Murray and his T.25 city car - Telegraph

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: Four unexpected US economic bright spots - Fortune

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS II: Unemployment in U.S. May Rise Toward 10% on ‘Feeble' Growth - Bloomberg

CANADA

Tough rate call ahead for Mark Carney - Reportonbusiness

Canada Firms Plan to Add Jobs in Fourth Quarter, Manpower Says - Bloomberg

Unions' Labour Day bogey: Government cuts - CBC

INTERNATIONAL

NADA not happy with proposed fuel economy letter grades - Autobloggreen

Analysts: US auto sales recovery under way, but may take longer - DetroitNews

GM Powertrain Hungary to double capacity - Reuters

Audi's $66,000 A7 to Challenge BMW, Daimler for Luxury Lead - Bloomberg

Fritz Henderson Makes The Weirdest Career Move Ever - 24/7WallSt.

MMC, Peugeot to make electric cars in Spain - Reuters

Long Weekend - Sept. 04, 2010

FOCUS: Taxpayers likely to face initial loss on GM IPO - Reuters

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: Japan Has More Than Just a Yen Crisis - BusinessWeek

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS II: U.S. Economy: Recession Concerns Ease on Private Jobs - Bloomberg

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS III: EU austerity policies risk civil war in Greece, warns top German economist Dr Sinn - Telegraph

CANADA

Kia Canada to recall 4,500 cars - TheStar

UBS lowers estimates for Canadian GDP growth - FinancialPost

Canada Credit: Yield Forecasts Fall as Carney Prepares Meeting - Bloomberg

INTERNATIONAL

Study: Modern li-ion batteries have little effect on life cycle impact of electric cars - Autobloggreen

Chrysler takes the wraps off of 2011 Dodge Durango - DetroitNews

Movie Star, Car Buff Tim Allen New Voice for Chevy - WardsAuto

Oil eases on growth concerns and weaker storm - Reuters

Ford Settles With Minor Leaguer's Family After Losing Verdict - Bloomberg

Friday - Sept. 03, 2010

FOCUS: Opel: The achilles heel in GM's IPO - Fortune/CNNMoney

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: White House: No second stimulus being considered - Reuters

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS II: China reserves 65% in dollars, 26% in euro - MarketWatch

CANADA

Canada's Dollar Drops as Risk ‘Orgy' Flags Before Jobs Report - Bloomberg

TSX on longest winning streak since February - FinancialPost

Canada's big five banks earn $4.8 billion in third quarter - TheStar

INTERNATIONAL

US Treasury mulls over foreign investors in GM IPO - Reuters

Toyota's US August Performance Worst in More Than Year - WardsAuto

US hybrid sales drop off for August; even Prius records a 37.5% decline - Autobloggreen

GM IPO tour timetable emerges - DetroitNews 

Thursday - Sept. 02, 2010

FOCUS: Honda shares pass Toyota's on emerging market hope - Reuters

FOCUS II: How EPA's new fuel economy label would grade current cars - Autobloggreen

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: U.S. Avoids Recession as Data Can't Get Much Worse - Bloomberg

CANADA

Auto sales slow to a crawl - TheStar

Auto sales surge in Canada, slump in U.S. - Reportonbusiness

Electric car upswing would crash grid: Toronto Hydro chief - TheStar

INTERNATIONAL

German Aug. new-car registrations down 27% on year - MarketWatch

Continental picks banks for high-yield bond - Reuters

Toyota Leads U.S. Sales Drop on ‘Clunkers' Comparison - Bloomberg

Chevy's New Cruze Needs a Hard Sell - BusinessWeek

Ferrari 458 fires prompt global recall - Just-Auto

US Auto sales: Worst August since 1983 - CNNMoney

GM China Growth Slowest in 17 Months; Ford Sales Gain - Bloomberg

Wednesday - Sept. 01, 2010

FOCUS: Dan Akerson's first day at the top of GM - Fortune

FOCUS II: China's August Car Sales Increase 59%, Center Says - Bloomberg

FOCUS III: Feds investigate '11 Hyundai Sonata for steering issues - DetroitNews

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: The Knightian dog ate my recovery - Reuters

CANADA

Court clears Magna's $1B Stronach payout - FinancialPost

Auto Parts: Onex, CPPIB to delist Tomkins in London - Reportonbusiness

Ontario auto insurance reforms take effect Wednesday - TheStar

Canada's economic growth slows in Q2 - CBC

Canada's Dollar Falls to Eight-Week Low as Economic Pace Slows - Bloomberg

INTERNATIONAL

Visteon cleared to exit bankruptcy -DetroitNews

Tesla Roadster qualifies for Japan EV rebates - Reuters

Old GM, Motors Liquidation, files plan to revamp - MarketWatch

Japan Vehicle Sales Rise Most Since 1972 on Subsidy - Bloomberg

Hyundai Motor August sales dip due to holidays - Reuters

FASTWEBLINK DATABASE - Monthly Archive

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