Used car prices are expected to continue their decline throughout 2008 and into 2009, as economic conditions in North America continue to moderate, according to the latest Global Auto Report released by Scotia Economics.
"Used car prices have been declining across North America since late 2006, but the weakness accelerated in early 2008 alongside deteriorating economic conditions -- especially in the United States," said Carlos Gomes, Scotiabank Senior Economist and Auto Industry Specialist. "We expect used car prices to continue to soften through early 2009, pressured by rising unemployment in both the United States and Canada."
The weakness in pre-owned vehicle prices began in Canada, with rising imports of second-hand models from the United States undercutting pricing for pre-owned vehicles. However, the decline has spread south of the border, as slowing U.S. economic growth and rising energy and food costs have dampened U.S. household purchasing power.
The Scotiabank Used Car Price Index -- which tracks prices in Canada's pre-owned vehicle market -- began to weaken in mid-2006, with the decline accelerating in recent months. In the first quarter of 2008, the index dropped 7 per cent below a year ago, led by an 11 per cent slump in the price of one-year old models - the weakest performance on record for data back to 1978.
"A record number of vehicles coming off-lease in Canada is also dampening used car prices," said Mr. Gomes. "We estimate that more than 550,000 cars and light truck leases will expire in Canada this year, adding to the glut of more than 200,000 used vehicles that will be imported from the United States."
North America sees an overall drop in auto sales, while crossover utility vehicles surge. Vehicle sales across North America weakened significantly in March, slumping 11 per cent below a year earlier.
The United Sates accounted for most of the decline, with purchases diving 12 per cent year over year to an annualized 15.1 million units -- the lowest level since October 2005, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and down from a full-year 2007 total of 16.1 million units. Volumes were undercut by falling house prices, the ongoing sub-prime mortgage crisis, rising unemployment, record gasoline prices and deteriorating consumer confidence - currently at a five-year low.
Light trucks led the decline, slashing the annualized sales pace of these models to the lowest level since the height of the Asian currency crisis a decade ago. In particular, sales of SUVs plunged 32 per cent below a year earlier, while pickup trucks slumped 23 per cent, with demand sapped by U.S. gasoline prices above $3.30 per gallon for the first time on record.
In contrast, the popularity of crossover utility vehicles (CUVs) continues to surge, with purchases in Canada soaring nearly 30 per cent year over year in the first quarter of 2008. These vehicles now account for 20 per cent of total new vehicle sales in Canada - double their share as recently as 2004, and second only to small cars, a segment that garners more than one-third of the Canadian market. In fact, CUVs have become so popular across North America, that Ford is hiring an additional 500 workers at its plant in Oakville, Ontario -- the production site of the Ford Edge and the Lincoln MKX crossover utility vehicles.
Economic Factors and Outlook
The ongoing credit crunch is also cutting into vehicle demand by reducing not only the number of auto loans, but also the loan value and the length of term. Furthermore, loan spreads above prime have tripled compared to recent years, as the market is re-pricing risk.
"These factors will deepen the cyclical decline in vehicle sales and pricing, but will set the stage for a recovery in 2009," said Mr. Gomes. "In fact, early long-term leading indicators of economic activity - such as the slope of the yield curve -- have started to improve in both Canada and the United States. However, changes in the slope of the yield curve lead both employment growth and vehicle pricing by about seven quarters, suggesting that a bottom in vehicle prices is unlikely until early 2009."
What it means:
Not a good time to be in the used car business, although some opportunities may develop for the lower end of the spectrum and the traditional good resale-value leaders. A whopping 750,000 used vehicles will be looking for a new owner this year alone - a dismal outlook for the retailers but a great opportunity for the consumer. The key factors to watch will be the price of fuel, aggressive new car pricing and affordable credit availability. Expect a pronounced consumer's flight to quality - either as the overall operating costs (fuel efficiency/pricing/credit) or premium product (discounted) demand. The recent pre-owned April results are already confirming these trends.
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STRATEGIC/MACRO DAILY INFORMATION for Canadian automotive business
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Monday - Feb. 06, 2012
FOCUS: GM aims for 10 percent profit margin over next few years: report - Reuters
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: Chinese economic growth at risk from European downturn - Guardian
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS II: Greece lets another deadline slip in bailout poker - Reuters
CANADA
GM, Bullfrog team to make Volt greener - ReportonBusiness
OAS battle no retirement crisis - FinancialPost
INTERNATIONAL
Chrysler draws praise for Clint Eastwood ad touting U.S. turnaround - Det.News
US: Dealer Calls for Auto Makers to Boost Margins - Wards
World Car of the Year: The top 10 - Telegraph
Suzuki Motor 9-month profit dips - MarketWatch
GM doesn't pull Super Bowl ad that tweaks Ford - Det.News
Friday - Feb. 03, 2012
FOCUS: Toyota expects global 2012 sales to rise 21% - MarketWatch
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: China cabinet economist warns of "deflation" in 2012 - Reuters
CANADA
Ottawa leans on banks to tighten lending - ReportonBusiness
Canada's jobless rate rises - FinancialPost
INTERNATIONAL
Toyota's January China sales down 25% - MarketWatch
South Korea to get more Fords - Det.News
Major South American Markets Saw Mostly Positive Results in 2011 - Wards
Daimler's Mercedes-Benz Jan. global sales up 5.8% - MarketWatch
Thursday - Feb. 02, 2012
FOCUS: USA: Consumer demand, optimistic economic signals help Jan. auto sales - Det.News
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: Worst yet to come for China growth: economist - Reuters
CANADA
Canadian auto-parts makers see green opportunity in India - ReportonBusiness
Canadian auto sales jump 15 per cent in January - TheStar
Canadian pension plan eyes Australia investments - MarketWatch
INTERNATIONAL
Chrysler profit means $1,500 bonus for employees - Det.News
Washington Stands Behind Claims of 54.5 MPG Fuel Rules - Wards
Mitsubishi Motors swings back to profit - MarketWatch
Indiana's electric-vehicle bust - Det.News
Wednesday - Feb. 01, 2012
FOCUS: Chrysler's U.S. January sales top 101,000 - MarketWatch
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: German jobs miracle as Latin unemployment soars - Telegraph
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS II: Hedge funds brace for euro zone break-up - Reuters
CANADA
Canada-EU trade deal a hopeful sign - FinancialPost
Is Old Age Security truly unsustainable? - CBC
INTERNATIONAL
Electric Cars: Doubling Down On Dumb - RealclearMarkets
Chrysler ends robust '11 with $183M profit - Det.News
Double-Digit Production Gains Forecast for North America in 2012 - Wards
Toyota reports robust orders for Aqua hybrid - MarketWatchTuesday - Jan. 31, 2012
FOCUS: Japanese suppliers, execs to pay $548M in price fixing - Det.News
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: Euro-zone Dec. jobless rate at record 10.4% - MarketWatch
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS II: Europe signs up to German-led fiscal pact - Reuters
CANADA
Did Quebec's fall jobs rout really happen? - FinancialPost
Warning: Debt binge a danger to financial health - ReportonBusiness
INTERNATIONAL
Hyundai Mobis reports new GM, Chrysler contracts - MarketWatch
Treasury ups auto bailout loss estimate - Det.News
Small XV Crosstrek Expands Subaru Lineup - Wards
UK: Ford's 1.0-litre Focus goes on sale - Telegraph
Honda's quarterly profit falls 41% on strong yen - MarketWatch
Monday - Jan. 30, 2012
FOCUS: EU car makers slam India free-trade pact - MarketWatch
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: EU leaders struggle to reconcile austerity, growth - Reuters
CANADA
Austerity budget is coming, but is this the right time? - ReportonBusiness
Canada downgraded, relations with the U.S. at lowest point in 25 years - FinancialPost
INTERNATIONAL
In Beetle's creation story, a plot twist - Det.News
Hyundai Reticent to Tout Hybrids; Stop/Start Uncertain - Wards
Honda out to shake up market with first jet next year - Reuters
Car-buying tips men can learn from women - MarketWatch
Britain's auto industry rising from the grave - TheStar
Despite strong '11, Ford cautious - Det.News
Friday - Jan. 27, 2012
FOCUS: Ford Motor Co. earns $20.2 billion in 2011 - Det.News
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: Investors fear mounting losses in Portugal as second rescue looms - Telegraph
CANADA
Does Harper really need to raise the retirement age? - ReportonBusiness
Borrowing Boomers pile on more debt - MoneyVille
INTERNATIONAL
Ford net jumps; operating profit lags estimate - MarketWatch
Jobs, Jobs and Cars - NYTimes
GM: Bad publicity hurt Volt - Det.News
New Chevy Window Sticker Details Cradle-to-Grave Environmental Impact - Wards
Kia targets 2012 sales growth to slow to 9.5% - MarketWatch
Thursday - Jan. 26, 2012
FOCUS: Hyundai Motor posts 38% rise in Q4 net profit - MarketWatch
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: THE SEEDS OF DYSTOPIA: Roubini & Co. Scare The Crap Out Of Davos - BusinessInsider
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS II: Bernanke has "finger on trigger" for new bond buys - Reuters
CANADA
Canadian jobs quality worsened in 2011: CIBC report - TheStar
Canada imports oil while battling over pipeline exports - CBC
INTERNATIONAL
Ford: Fusion isn't chasing Camry - Det.News
Nissan, Partners Explore Afterlife of EV Batteries - Wards
MG makes a return to racing - Telegraph
Crude oil edges above $100 a barrel - MarketWatch
Fiat-Chrysler in talks to produce Jeeps in China - Det.News
Wednesday - Jan. 25, 2012
FOCUS: Car makers work to sort out mess in Europe - Det.News
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: Forget Greece; it's Portugal that'll destroy euro - MarketWatch
CANADA
Two major Canadian unions, CAW and CEP, exploring merger by mid-2013 - TheStar
More Canadians in low-paying jobs - ReportonBusiness
INTERNATIONAL
Audit rips exec pay in bailouts - Det.News
GM International Chief Sees Remedy for European Ops as Sales Soar Elsewhere - Wards
Opel Talking with SAIC Regarding China Sales Expansion - ChinaCarTimes
GM CEO to Congress: Volt is safe - Det.News
Tuesday - Jan. 24, 2012
FOCUS: European Debt Won't ‘Put Brakes on the World,' Ford Executive Says - Wards
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: Worries Portugal may need second bailout: WSJ - MarketWatch
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS II: Euro zone may skirt recession as PMIs surprise - Reuters
CANADA
Signs augur well for Canadian entry in TPP: Trade Minister - ReportonBusiness
Carney warns U.S. may never fully recover - CBC
INTERNATIONAL
Auto bankruptcies weighed early - Det.News
The art of the supercar - Telegraph
Volkswagen Aims to Combine With Porsche as Soon as Economically ‘Sensible' - Bloomberg
Congress yet to OK electric auto agenda - Det.News
Monday - Jan. 23, 2012
FOCUS: OPEC: $100 oil acceptable to producers, consumers - MarketWatch
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: Davos guide: what you need to know about the World Economic Forum - Guardian
CANADA
Stalled on the road to economic recovery - ReportonBusiness
INTERNATIONAL
Hyundai rattles Volkswagen in Europe after winning in U.S. - Det.News
Momentum Builds for Chrysler Design Team - Wards
Toyota to cut 350 jobs at Australian plant - MarketWatch
GM Faces Task of Rebuilding Volt Image After NHTSA Ends Its Investigation - Bloomberg
Friday - Jan. 20, 2012
FOCUS: GM again world's largest on strong Chevy sales - Det.News
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: Shilling says new global recession is here - MarketWatch
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS II: Factbox: What happens if Greece defaults? - Reuters
CANADA
Annual inflation falls sharply to 2.3% - ReportonBusiness
Who knew? Toronto's economy is on fire - FinancialPost
INTERNATIONAL
GM picks N.Y. man's ad to air during Super Bowl - Det.News
Mazda3 Hints at Things to Come - Wards
UK: Ten most expensive cars to insure - Telegraph
Chrysler, GM wait on raises, bonuses - Det.News
Thursday - Jan. 19, 2012
FOCUS: Science panel backs closing of Toyota acceleration probe - DetroitNews
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: IMF sees euro zone GDP down 0.5 percent in 2012: ANSA - Reuters
CANADA
Don't settle for new 'natural' jobless rate of 7 per cent - ReportonBusiness
BOC's Mark Carney puts a price tag on global turmoil - TheStar
Living the American dream -- in Canada - MarketWatch
INTERNATIONAL
Akerson to testify in Volt probe - DetroitNews
Saab: a celebration - Telegraph
Honda's Plan To Manufacture Supercars In America Is A Gamechanger - BusinessInsider
Renault has no plans to sell Volvo stake: report - MarketWatch
Kia Stop/Start Stalls - Wards
Wednesday - Jan. 18, 2012
FOCUS: Average age of cars, trucks hits 10.8 years, sets record - DetroitNews
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: IMF explores $1 trillion lending boost - MarketWatch
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS II: Hungary faces ruin as EU loses patience - Telegraph
CANADA
Federal budget may be delayed by European woes - CBC
Flaherty watching risky debt as Carney leaves BOC interest rate at 1 per cent - TheStar
INTERNATIONAL
Toyota sets high Korean target for Camry sales - MarketWatch
Lotus's Incoming Malaysian Owner Says It's Open to Selling Sports Carmaker - Bloomberg
Mercedes to Ponder Engine Exports From U.S. - Wards
Toyota to build 30,000 hybrid subcompacts in Feb - MarketWatch
Tuesday - Jan. 17, 2012
FOCUS: Saudis target 'triple-digit' oil price for the first time - ReportonBusiness
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: Eurozone's 'big bazooka' bail-out fund is left in tatters by S&P downgrade - Telegraph
CANADA
Canada: A global energy superpower - FinancialPost
Euro woes temper growth: Mark Carney - ReportonBusiness
INTERNATIONAL
Fiat, Peugeot Lead European Car-Sales Drop as Economy Slows - Bloomberg
Public hearing in Detroit to address fuel economy standards - DetroitNews
Mini and Chrysler Recall Vehicles for Electronic Flaws - WSJ
Denso Growth Heats Up - Wards
Monday - Jan. 16, 2012
FOCUS: Today's youth a tough sell for automakers - DetroitNews
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: IMF: European outlook grim; high global risks - MarketWatch
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS II: UK back in recession and no interest rates rise 'until 2016' - Telegraph
CANADA
Carney set to keep powder dry, stand pat on rates - ReportonBusiness
INTERNATIONAL
Saab Owners Still Rallying To Support Brand - WSJ
Billionaire Syed Mokhtar's DRB-Hicom to Buy Control of Lotus-Owner Proton - Bloomberg
Opel to Unveil New Mokka Small CUV in Geneva - Wards
GM Vice Chair Stephens to retire on April 1 - DetroitNews
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