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SEPTEMBER 6, 2008: A Fall's Preamble: August's Vehicle Sales

 

by Michael Pistol

Finally the shoe dropped, and for the month of August the Canadian auto sales went in reverse, a good -7.2% that is. Sorry...
I usually don’t get into commenting about the sales numbers, as certainly, there is no shortage of competent commentators and analysts to dissect this subject at length, every month.

Yet, August proved to be a turning point, and it is interesting to observe what’s behind these numbers – and briefly, from a strictly business perspective, here is my two cents worth.


The difference of 11,400 cars seems to be quite high, but when you deduct the could-have-been leases from GM and Chrysler and the shortage of gas-sippers from several manufacturers, especially from Honda, the results are actually in line with expectations. You can’t sell what you don’t have, can you?

Going ahead into a soft autumn market, shortages aside, the primary headaches for all manufacturers will certainly revolve around pricing, competent product vis-à-vis Canadian market, and image/branding issues.

Quickly, here is a more granular look at the main players and what is going on.

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Ipso Facto - Fundamentals September 2008
POSITIVE GROWTH: Labour Force Survey, August 2008 - Statistics Canada
Following a decline in July, employment edged up by 15,000 in August. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.1%. Since the start of the year, employment has increased by 87,000 (+0.5%)...
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PRICING FUNDAMENTALS: Toyota announces new pricing on 9 models.
As part of Toyota’s commitment to transparent pricing, new prices were announced on 9 Toyota models.  Revised pricing reflects new specifications changes, new 2009 model year introductions and retaining competitively priced products with the U.S. and Canadian...
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INTREST RATES: Bank of Canada keeps overnight rate target at 3 percent
The Bank of Canada has announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 3 percent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 3-1/4 percent...
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ENERGY: Higher Electricity Prices Needed for Cleaner Power Production
InOntario, the 2003 price freeze saw rates reduced to $1 billion below the actual price for power. Ontario taxpayers are also paying more than $900 million a year to service the remaining $19 billion...

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RESOURCES 2009
CANADIAN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY RESOURCES
Need results? Meet our industry's key players.
Essential data, contacts, website.


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NEWS - Seven Days___________Sept.06 - Sept.12, 2008
PRODUCTION: Toyota Canada to halve production of RAV4 at Woodstock plant indefinitely.
APPOINTMENT: UltraFit Manufacturing appoints Tim Creasy to the position of Vice President – Sales and Marketing
INVESTMENT: Industry Canada to invest in Ford's Renaissance Project - New flexible engine assembly plant and North America Centre...
ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE: Chrysler LLC completes program to eliminate use of lead wheel weights.
LAWSUIT: Class action lawsuit filed against auto manufacturers for misrepresenting taxes on new cars
APPOINTMENT: Stephen Odell appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Volvo Car Corporation
PRODUCT: Lexus Canada introduces All-Wheel Drive Performance on its LS 460 and LS 460 L Luxury Sedans
PARADIGM SHIFTS - Open Source for Automotive Business Leadership /October
1 | 2
Happy Birthday GM!
Fascinating week – don’t you think?  The third week of September 2008, will be remembered for a long time, no doubt, and it won’t be much related to September 16 General Motors’s 100 anniversary...
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Creative Destruction - And an update on alternative fuels
While the business world is gripped by venerable banks deathwatch, hair-raising Wall Street’ cliffhangers, Detroit Three’s bailout schemes and oil’s sudden abandonment by your pension plan or investment bank...
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Summer's End - Now What?
We thought that a quick look ahead at the 2008 fall season...
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Summer's End - Now What?, Part II
We should remember that our industry is both highly leveraged and a cyclical one...
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HOT ISSUE: Natural Gas - Canada's next opportunity
Natural gas for modern automotive applications, CNGVA and an anlaysis of current market...
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STRATEGIC/MACRO DAILY INFORMATION for Canadian automotive business

TJAAautoinfo FASTWEBLINK

Tuesday - Sept. 07, 2010

FOCUS: The rise and fall in China's auto production and sales growth since 2006: Shifting Gears - Caixin

FOCUS II: BMW Chief Plans ‘Big Push' to Fend Off Audi, Mercedes - BusinessWeek

FOCUS III: Gordon Murray and his T.25 city car - Telegraph

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: Four unexpected US economic bright spots - Fortune

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS II: Unemployment in U.S. May Rise Toward 10% on ‘Feeble' Growth - Bloomberg

CANADA

Tough rate call ahead for Mark Carney - Reportonbusiness

Canada Firms Plan to Add Jobs in Fourth Quarter, Manpower Says - Bloomberg

Unions' Labour Day bogey: Government cuts - CBC

INTERNATIONAL

NADA not happy with proposed fuel economy letter grades - Autobloggreen

Analysts: US auto sales recovery under way, but may take longer - DetroitNews

GM Powertrain Hungary to double capacity - Reuters

Audi's $66,000 A7 to Challenge BMW, Daimler for Luxury Lead - Bloomberg

Fritz Henderson Makes The Weirdest Career Move Ever - 24/7WallSt.

MMC, Peugeot to make electric cars in Spain - Reuters

Long Weekend - Sept. 04, 2010

FOCUS: Taxpayers likely to face initial loss on GM IPO - Reuters

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: Japan Has More Than Just a Yen Crisis - BusinessWeek

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS II: U.S. Economy: Recession Concerns Ease on Private Jobs - Bloomberg

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS III: EU austerity policies risk civil war in Greece, warns top German economist Dr Sinn - Telegraph

CANADA

Kia Canada to recall 4,500 cars - TheStar

UBS lowers estimates for Canadian GDP growth - FinancialPost

Canada Credit: Yield Forecasts Fall as Carney Prepares Meeting - Bloomberg

INTERNATIONAL

Study: Modern li-ion batteries have little effect on life cycle impact of electric cars - Autobloggreen

Chrysler takes the wraps off of 2011 Dodge Durango - DetroitNews

Movie Star, Car Buff Tim Allen New Voice for Chevy - WardsAuto

Oil eases on growth concerns and weaker storm - Reuters

Ford Settles With Minor Leaguer's Family After Losing Verdict - Bloomberg

Friday - Sept. 03, 2010

FOCUS: Opel: The achilles heel in GM's IPO - Fortune/CNNMoney

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: White House: No second stimulus being considered - Reuters

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS II: China reserves 65% in dollars, 26% in euro - MarketWatch

CANADA

Canada's Dollar Drops as Risk ‘Orgy' Flags Before Jobs Report - Bloomberg

TSX on longest winning streak since February - FinancialPost

Canada's big five banks earn $4.8 billion in third quarter - TheStar

INTERNATIONAL

US Treasury mulls over foreign investors in GM IPO - Reuters

Toyota's US August Performance Worst in More Than Year - WardsAuto

US hybrid sales drop off for August; even Prius records a 37.5% decline - Autobloggreen

GM IPO tour timetable emerges - DetroitNews 

Thursday - Sept. 02, 2010

FOCUS: Honda shares pass Toyota's on emerging market hope - Reuters

FOCUS II: How EPA's new fuel economy label would grade current cars - Autobloggreen

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: U.S. Avoids Recession as Data Can't Get Much Worse - Bloomberg

CANADA

Auto sales slow to a crawl - TheStar

Auto sales surge in Canada, slump in U.S. - Reportonbusiness

Electric car upswing would crash grid: Toronto Hydro chief - TheStar

INTERNATIONAL

German Aug. new-car registrations down 27% on year - MarketWatch

Continental picks banks for high-yield bond - Reuters

Toyota Leads U.S. Sales Drop on ‘Clunkers' Comparison - Bloomberg

Chevy's New Cruze Needs a Hard Sell - BusinessWeek

Ferrari 458 fires prompt global recall - Just-Auto

US Auto sales: Worst August since 1983 - CNNMoney

GM China Growth Slowest in 17 Months; Ford Sales Gain - Bloomberg

Wednesday - Sept. 01, 2010

FOCUS: Dan Akerson's first day at the top of GM - Fortune

FOCUS II: China's August Car Sales Increase 59%, Center Says - Bloomberg

FOCUS III: Feds investigate '11 Hyundai Sonata for steering issues - DetroitNews

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: The Knightian dog ate my recovery - Reuters

CANADA

Court clears Magna's $1B Stronach payout - FinancialPost

Auto Parts: Onex, CPPIB to delist Tomkins in London - Reportonbusiness

Ontario auto insurance reforms take effect Wednesday - TheStar

Canada's economic growth slows in Q2 - CBC

Canada's Dollar Falls to Eight-Week Low as Economic Pace Slows - Bloomberg

INTERNATIONAL

Visteon cleared to exit bankruptcy -DetroitNews

Tesla Roadster qualifies for Japan EV rebates - Reuters

Old GM, Motors Liquidation, files plan to revamp - MarketWatch

Japan Vehicle Sales Rise Most Since 1972 on Subsidy - Bloomberg

Hyundai Motor August sales dip due to holidays - Reuters

FASTWEBLINK DATABASE - Monthly Archive

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CROSSHAIRS & DARWINIAN ECONOMICS - December 2008
STUDY: Over a barrel? Canada and the rising cost of energy – StatsCan
Driving and commuting habits have been slow...
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STUDY: Canadian Trends in Vehicle Longevity
Vehicle longevity is an area we cover every year...
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CONSUMER DEBT RISES: Canadian Household Credit Analysis – CIBC World Markets
According to the latest Household Credit Analysis...
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CONSUMER SATISFACTION: American Automakers Fall Further Behind Foreign Competition - ACSI